Bait 'n' Beer

Well, it's happened. I predicted on Twitter on Friday morning that publishers threatening to pull their ebooks from Amazon (or otherwise playing hardball with the giant e-retailer) would find the "Buy Now" buttons for their print books MIA and their titles mightily hard to find in Amazon search.
 
I just didn't think it would happen quite so fast. Late on Friday, MacMillan's titles on Amazon went *poof* and all hell broke loose. The facts of the story have been thoroughly reported and analyzed (most thoughtfully, in my opinion, by Publisher's Lunch but in lots of other places as well) and everybody and his great aunt has blogged, tweeted and otherwise opined on the matter. Some of the opinions have been well-informed and thoughtful, some less so, and the usual suspects have lined up with their respective camps based on their digital book worldview.  You can agree or disagree with some of the conclusions drawn but at least we've (mostly) gotten away from the hair-on-fire commentary that appeared in the early hours of the dustup.
 
From my perspective, this fight is a good thing. It needed to happen so why not sooner than later? If you're curious about why it needs to happen, consider the level of fear and uncertainty publishers (and, in turn, agents and authors) have been living with for the past year-and-a-half as Amazon virtually owned the market with only the lamest competition and the hope that something, anything would save them. It's been next to impossible for  to make a decision about what their digital strategy should be (and, not insignficantly, how much to spend in that direction).

All that changed with Apple's iBooks announcement, which accompanied the much ballyhooed iPad. iBooks promises publishers some degree of control over their offerings there and with it, some hope of what publishers regard as more reasonable ebook pricing and division of sales proceeds between Apple and publishers. (Bear in mind--all this happens inside Apple's closed system, so it's unclear what the ultimate outcome will be, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt for the moment.)

So we are going to have competition, Amazon's or Apple's model will carry the day (it will be difficult for publishers to offer different deal to each since they're both probably in the same class of trade for setting terms) and it's a battle worth fighting for both Amazon and MacMillan (who is in the unfortunate position of being a proxy warrior for Apple. The outcome of this fight (and similar ones if other publishers and distributors choose to force the issue) will clear the air on the model under which digital books will be sold, allowing all of us to plan our businesses with a reasonable understanding of what we're in for rather than on speculation, hope and fear.
 
Let's be clear. Neither of the parties to this particular kerfluffle is evil incarnate nor is either pure as the driven snow. Each is behaving rationally and in its own interest, as it should. While it's easy to be sympathetic to MacMillan against 'the bully', a MacMillan win is likely to make ebooks more expensive for readers, at least in the near to intermediate term. Anyone surprised by Amazon's hardball moves hasn't been paying attention to Amazon for long, but this is company has done more to advance the market for digital books than anyone to this point and, I would add, a company that is most trade publishers' largest single customer for itheir print titles). A win by either side has potential positive and negative consequences, so be a little careful about making an emotional choice.
 
So let them slug it out. Watch and cheer for your favorite if you want, but know that, while you may have a preference about who should win, almost any outcome will remove a huge amount of uncertainty and et us get on with building the digital book business. In the meantime, Remain Calm and Carry on.
 ***
 
Added at 5:30 PM EST 31 January
 
AND THIS JUST IN FROM THE AMAZON KINDLE COMMUNITY SITE:
The Amazon Kindle team says:
Dear Customers:

Macmillan, one of the "big six" publishers, has clearly communicated to us that, regardless of our viewpoint, they are committed to switching to an agency model and charging $12.99 to $14.99 for e-book versions of bestsellers and most hardcover releases.

We have expressed our strong disagreement and the seriousness of our disagreement by temporarily ceasing the sale of all Macmillan titles. We want you to know that ultimately, however, we will have to capitulate and accept Macmillan's terms because Macmillan has a monopoly over their own titles, and we will want to offer them to you even at prices we believe are needlessly high for e-books. Amazon customers will at that point decide for themselves whether they believe it's reasonable to pay $14.99 for a bestselling e-book. We don't believe that all of the major publishers will take the same route as Macmillan. And we know for sure that many independent presses and self-published authors will see this as an opportunity to provide attractively priced e-books as an alternative.

Kindle is a business for Amazon, and it is also a mission. We never expected it to be easy!

Thank you for being a customer.